Roger Federer and Robin Soderling will clash with each other at New York time 7 PM on Wednesday, September 8th. This corresponds to the Indian Standard Time of 4:30 AM on Thursday, September 9th. This write up is an attempt to assess the chances of Roger Federer viewed against the past history, statistics and present form. Although I’m an ardent fan of Roger Federer, I will try to view the whole thing as impartially as I can.
Federer, aged 29, and Soderling, aged 26, have played each other 13 times. Federer has won 12 times and Soderling just once. Their last meeting was in French Open, less than three months ago; Soderling was the winner then. If this lone victory is considered as a trend-reversal, Soderling could be the winner this time too. Whether one victory is enough to reverse the trend set by 12 consecutive defeats is a moot point.
Federer is ranked 2nd while Soderling is 5th. Needless to say, Federer has been the World Number One for years. It was only recently, he slipped to 3 and, soon thereafter, climbed to 2. Soderling has been at around his present level for some time now. When their rankings are considered, Soderling stands no chance.
As I have mentioned repeatedly in my preceding articles, anyone who aspires to beat Federer should have three things in plenty: a booming serve, a blistering forehand and an unshakeable grit. Brian Dabul, whom Federer faced in the first round, and Andreas Beck, in the second round, did not have any worth mentioning quantity of these qualities. Paul-Henri Mathieu, the third round opponent, did have some of them, but not enough. Jurgen Melzer, of the fourth round, too did have some of those qualities, but his stock of them was not that big. The case of Soderling is different. Let us see how.
Till the last week, Soderling has served a mammoth 498 aces while Federer has served 104 less. Soderling is ranked 5th in a list of 100, while Federer is ranked 11th. In their respective fourth round matches in the current US Open, Soderling’s fastest serve was at 134 miles per hour, while Federer’s was at Rs.132 MPH. The average serve speed of Soderling was 119 MPH against 116 MPH of Federer. Definitely, Soderling has the edge in this vital department of the game. However, it is worth remembering that John Isner, the player who has served the highest number of aces (799), has already been eliminated. So have Roddick (ranked 2nd) Querry (3rd), Karlovic (6th), Berdych (7th), Almagro (8th) and Lopez (9th), despite their being toppers in serving aces. It needs to be remembered that Rafael Nadal has served only 191 aces and is ranked way below at 45 while Djokovic is ranked 44: both are still going strong in the current tournament.
When it comes to the 1st serve percentage, Soderling is ranked 42nd while Federer is higher, at 28. In their respective fourth round matches, Soderling managed to get only 52% of his 1st serves in, while Federer had a greater success at 61%. Soderling served 3 double faults against Federer’s one. Federer’s greater accuracy must have helped him considerably in remaining at the top. Federer often comes up with a big serve when in difficult situations, I have seen him doing it many times. Soderling will have to acquire better accuracy than Federer for tilting the balance to his advantage. As it is, Soderling is found wanting on this count.
Points won returning the 1st serve is another crucial parameter. Federer is ranked 4th while Soderling is 20th, in a list of 75. This shows that Federer is a better returner of serve than Soderling. The serves of both being equally good, the greater returning ability of Federer will weigh more in the present contest between the two much familiar foes.
Let us look at Soderling’s forehand. Albert Montanes, whom Soderling had faced in the fourth round was ranked 21st, while Jurgen Melzer, Federer’s opponent, was ranked much higher, at 13. Thus the opponent Federer had faced was far tougher than Soderling’s opponent. Still, Soderling committed 40 unforced errors while Federer committed 27 only. This shows that Soderling's volleys, most of which must have been forehand, lacked punch. Soderling’s forehand had been fiery when he overwhelmed Federer in the French Open; it did play a great role in the victory. The present statistics could mean that his forehand is, of late, not as effective as it had been in the French Open. On the contrary, Federer’s forehand in the fourth round match was definitely better than in the French Open and Wimbledon.
When it comes to the display of grit, Federer is far above the rest. Two sets down, he has turned around matches. I have seen many players droop their heads and write themselves off in similar situations. But not Federer. He keeps his cool and never gives up till the very end. Mainly because he enjoys playing aggressive tennis. That is one quality which endeared him to millions of fans including me. Soderling is certainly a tough player, but I would not yet rank him on a par with Federer on this count. Soderling had failed to cash in on the advantage he had gained by defeating Federer in the French Open. He has since been defeated by lesser mortals like Almagro (at Bastad, Sweden), Nalbandian (Toronto), and Roddick (Cincinnati). Thus the last three tournaments in which he contested, do not inspire much hope. That more or less explains why he, though past 26 years of age, hasn’t won any Grand Slam yet.
Despite all this, I consider Soderling as one player who possesses the skill and calibre to upset Federer. So many players have beaten Federer: Hewitt, Tsonga, Davydenko, Murray, Monfils, Blake, del Potro, not to mention Nadal. I wouldn’t wonder if Soderling beats him tomorrow. But no one can deny that the opposite of this has been more true: Federer has conquered most of these players many more times than they have him. Soderling himself has lost to Federer 12 times before he managed to beat him. How Federer toyed with the likes of Tsonga, Djokovic and Murray in the Australian Open is still fresh in my memory. Federer, the King of Tennis, was at his majestic best in the Australian Open. The volley he hit between the legs had left Djokovic dazed. The magic shot was repeated in his first round match against Brian Dabul. It shows that his senses now are as sharp as they were in Australian Open.
I do not think Soderling is ready for a repeat of his French Open feat tomorrow. Though I am not fully satisfied with Federer’s performance in the preceding rounds, I still believe that Federer is playing better than Soderling; at least for now.
So, this is my prediction: Federer will win tomorrow.
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