Roger Federer's Pre-Quarter Final Match against Jurgen Melzer in the US Open 2010 - A prediction

Roger Federer’s Pre-Quarter Final match against Jurgen Melzer in the US Open 2010 - A Prediction


This article is an attempt to assess the chances of Roger Federer in the impending pre-quarter final match against Jurgen Melzer in the current US Open. A word of caution: since I’m a fan of Federer, my view is likely to be a fan’s. The match is scheduled for 7 PM (New York time) today (September 6, 2010).


The last time both played each other was in Wimbledon 2010, less than three months ago. Federer won the match with the respectable scores of 6-3, 6-2, 6-3. Melzer had got just one break point in the whole match, and he converted it while Federer forced 10 breakpoints and converted 6 of them. This factor itself is heavy enough to tilt the balance in favour of Federer. Especially because the match took place so recently as less than three months ago. Neither has Federer gone backward nor has Melzer come conspicuously forward since then.


Both the players are aged 29. Roger Federer was ranked number 2 at Wimbledon 2010 and continues at the same rank. Melzer was ranked 16 then and has improved, though narrowly, to 15 now. However, compared to the players (Brian Dabul, ranked 96, Andreas Beck, ranked 104 and Paul-Henri Mathieu, ranked 109) whom Federer has met so far in the current US Open, Jurgen Melzer’s ranking is far higher and is, in fact, closer to Federer’s. Rank wise, Melzer is at ‘striking distance’.


Melzer has never won any Grand Slam title. Although he started playing at Grand Slams as early as in 2000 and has been a regular presence in them from 2003, he had never gone beyond the third round till 2009. In the current year, however, he made some progress: reached the semi-final at Roland Garros and the 4th round at Wimbledon. Well, still a far cry from the Royal Federer!


The ATP site says that Federer is ranked 11th in a list of 100 players who have served the highest number of aces. Melzer’s rank is 21. In their respective 3rd round matches, Federer’s average serve speed was faster at 114 miles per hour while Melzer’s was lower, at 109. Federer’s fastest serve was at 131 mph while Melzer’s was at 128. Although the gap between these figures is not too wide, they do indicate that Federer has a clear edge. Federer had also served an ace in one of his 2nd serves in his 3rd round match. Federer did not serve any double fault while Melzer had two. All this proves Federer’s greater accuracy, confidence and aggression.


Federer is ranked 28th in the list based on the 1st serve-percentage, with his score being 62%; Melzer is close at rank 33 with 61%. The figures are a little too close. The gap between the two players becomes wider when the 1st serve points won are considered: Federer is ranked 6th while Melzer is 32nd. Further, Federer has won 88% of his service games and is ranked 5th, while Melzer has won 83% only and is ranked much lower, at 18. How capable are they both in returning 1st serves? Federer is ranked 4th while Melzer is way below, at 33. Federer is ranked 12th and Melzer 30th in the list of those with the highest % of return-games won.


Federer’s statistics are formidable. Take any parameter, Federer stands higher than Melzer. There is something about Melzer which, I believe, might prevent him from defeating Federer. Melzer is a regular doubles player and had, together with Philipp Petzschner, won the men’s doubles title at Wimbledon 2010. In the current US Open too, they had contested in the doubles, though they couldn’t go beyond the 1st round. What I observe is that a regular doubles player seldom goes far in singles. The strategies of singles are different from those of doubles. Further, playing both singles and doubles will be too much for the body.

I had
watched the match between Federer and Melzer in Wimbledon 2010. I had always felt that for defeating Federer, a player should invariably have an abundant stock of three things in his armoury: a formidable serve, a fiery forehand and an unshakeable determination.


I do not have the pretensions that Federer would go on winning forever; at some point of time, the inevitable slide-down is bound to start. One day Melzer might be able to defeat Federer. But today is not that day. Melzer has to wait. Right now, it’s Federer all the way.


I predict victory for Federer today.