Roger Federer’s 3rd Round Match against Paul-Henri Mathieu – A prediction
This will be the third match in the Arthur Ashe Stadium today. Let me try to analyse the facts and arrive at a reasonable prediction of the likely outcome of the match.
Roger Federer is the World Number 2 while Paul-Henri Mathieu is ranked way below 109. The aces a player serves is crucial in deciding the outcome of every match. Roger Federer holds the 11th position in the highest number of aces served; Mathieu is, much below, at 71. Federer has won 77% of his 1st serve points and is ranked 6th in a list of 75 players. He has the same rank in winning 2nd serve points too. He is also a great returner of 1st serves and is ranked 4th. Further, he has won a whopping 88% of his service games and is ranked 5th. At the same time, he is almost equally good at saving break points, and is ranked 8th. Mathieu does not even figure in these lists of 75 players. All these statistics weigh heavily in favour of Roger Federer. If we compare Federer to Goliath and Mathieu to David, the comparison cannot be far from real; Federer is in such a lofty position.
The lone fact that the fans of Roger Federer (including me) would do well to remember is Paul-Henri Mathieu’s victory over Lleyton Hewitt in the 1st round of the current US Open just days ago. Though Lleyton Hewitt was ranked 32 and is a former World Number One, Mathieu got the better of him in a grueling, near three-hour five-setter. And, remember, the very same Lleyton Hewitt had, a mere two months ago, defeated Roger Federer in an ATP World Tour final in Germany. Thus Hewitt has defeated Federer and Mathieu has defeated Hewitt. Mathematically, Mathieu can defeat Federer.
Now comes the crucial question: is Roger Federer still playing at his best? Despite being an ardent fan of his, my sad observation is that he is not. But will that lone factor be enough to tilt the balance towards Mathieu against all odds? I do not think so.
My prediction: Federer will win in four sets.
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